2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - December 18, 2019
This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.
Notes for This Week:
- We are just 47 days away from the first primary in Iowa.
- You would hope that early state polling would be getting more consistent as we near the primary elections, but they are still a little spotty. We're having to rely more on national polling than I'd like to.
- Tomorrow is the sixth Democratic Primary debate, which will see seven candidates on the stage. It almost had none, as all the participating candidates threatened to boycott the event due to a labor union issue that was resolved just this week.
1. Joe Biden
Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: Biden's doctor stated that he is healthy, especially for his age (77).
2. Bernie Sanders
Previous Ranking: 2 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: The Bernie Bump is in full swing, as he's now earning over 20% in many national polls. It strangely looks like Sanders may have seen the most positive impact from Kamala Harris dropping out of the race.
3. Elizabeth Warren
Previous Ranking: 3 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
4. Pete Buttigieg
Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: Buttigieg got a lot of internet backlash after his second bump last month, and national polling shows that he might now be on the tail end of that bump.
5. Andrew Yang
Previous Ranking: 5 (-)
Credentials: Entrepreneur
6. Amy Klobuchar
Previous Ranking: 6 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
7. Michael Bloomberg
Previous Ranking: 7 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of New York City (2002-2013)
Notes: Bloomberg is actually polling higher than Klobuchar nationally, but he doesn't have much support in the few early state polls that have come out since he entered the race.
8. Cory Booker
Previous Ranking: 8 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-Present); Mayor of Newark, NJ (2006-2013); Newark City Council (1998-2002)
Notes: Booker and some other lower polling candidates made a bold choice not to appear on the Vermont primary ballot. The state has a 15% threshold to receive any delegates, and it's unlikely any candidate of than Sanders will meet that. He won his home state with 86% of the vote in 2016.
Honorable Mentions, Tier 1
- Julian Castro, Former U.S. Secretary of HUD and Former Mayor of San Antonio
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
- Tom Steyer, Billionaire
Honorable Mentions, Tier 2
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
- John Delaney, Former U.S. Representative from Maryland
- Deval Patrick, Former Governor of Massachusetts
- Marianne Williamson, Motivational Speaker & Self Help Author
General Reference Links
- Primary Polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
- Party Endorsements - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/
- Candidate Media Coverage - https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/media/
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