2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - December 11, 2019
This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.
Notes for This Week:
- We are just 54 days away from the first primary in Iowa.
- Tulsi Gabbard has announced that she will skip next week's debate, even if she does qualify by tomorrow's deadline. Gabbard's outsider role seems to be working somewhat, as she has garnered quite a bit of news (an even some OK polling numbers) from it.
- Andrew Yang just qualified for the sixth debate yesterday, so it looks like there will be seven candidates on the stage: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, and Yang.
1. Joe Biden
Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: When Biden was first looking to run this cycle, there was rumors that he might position himself as a one-term President as a transition to the next generation of leaders. He has apparently hinted to this idea recently as well. This could help with voters worried about his age and wanting to move the party (and the country) to a more progressive ideology.
2. Bernie Sanders
Previous Ranking: 3 (+1)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders moves back to #2 on the list, though he's helped significantly by Warren's slip and Buttigieg's bump.
3. Elizabeth Warren
Previous Ranking: 2 (-1)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Sanders is starting poll over Warren in the majority of recent national and even early state polls. There's no solid reason for the slip, but it could be a natural cooling off from her rise in the past months.
4. Pete Buttigieg
Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: Since his second rise in polling, Buttigieg has been hit with a lot of criticism from progressives. One point of contention has been his NDA from his time working for a consulting firm. Yesterday, he released the list of his clients.
5. Andrew Yang
Previous Ranking: 5 (-)
Credentials: Entrepreneur
Notes: Yang had some good and bad news in the past couple of days. While he qualified for the next debate, there have also been some allegations of sexual misconduct within his campaign.
6. Amy Klobuchar
Previous Ranking: 6 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
7. Michael Bloomberg
Previous Ranking: 8 (+1)
Credentials: Mayor of New York City (2002-2013)
Notes: Bloomberg has been steadily increasing his polling numbers, averaging about 5% nationally in recent weeks. However, it hasn't translated to early state polling yet, where he has yet to earn higher than 2%.
8. Cory Booker
Previous Ranking: 7 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-Present); Mayor of Newark, NJ (2006-2013); Newark City Council (1998-2002)
Notes: Booker's campaign is in serious trouble. He will most likely miss the next debate due to his poll numbers being anemic at best.
Honorable Mentions, Tier 1
- Julian Castro, Former U.S. Secretary of HUD and Former Mayor of San Antonio
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
- Tom Steyer, Billionaire
Honorable Mentions, Tier 2
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
- John Delaney, Former U.S. Representative from Maryland
- Deval Patrick, Former Governor of Massachusetts
- Marianne Williamson, Motivational Speaker & Self Help Author
General Reference Links
- Primary Polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
- Party Endorsements - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/
- Candidate Media Coverage - https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/media/
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