2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - September 12, 2019
This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running or have formed an exploratory committee are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.
Notes for This Week:
The third primary debate is tonight, with the Top 10 below as the participants. Things have been pretty steady heading into it (with one noted exception), but we'll see who can make some noise tonight. An interesting note is that the fourth debate will have at least 11 candidates, as billionaire Tom Steyer has successfully bought his way into the race.
1. Joe Biden
Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
2. Elizabeth Warren
Previous Ranking: 2 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Warren beat Biden in a recent ranked-choice poll, but she'll have to find a way to translate that into the traditional polling. Tonight is her first time facing Biden in a debate, so I imagine her strategy will be to go after him.
3. Bernie Sanders
Previous Ranking: 3 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders still leads Warren in many polls, but he has got to figure out a way to expand his base. If he doesn't, he risks other candidates like Warren and Yang siphoning off his supporters.
4. Kamala Harris
Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from California (2017–Current); Attorney General of California (2011–2017); District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011)
Notes: Everyone on the stage not named Biden needs to do well tonight, but I think Harris especially needs a win. She's been falling in the polls after her surge from the first debate, and she needs to show off her prosecuting skills again to regain some of her luster.
5. Pete Buttigieg
Previous Ranking: 5 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: Buttigieg and Klobuchar happened to be on the same flight and seated near each other on the way to Houston for the debate.
6. Andrew Yang
Previous Ranking: 8 (+2)
Credentials:
Notes: This is my hot take of the week. Support for Yang has been growing steadily over the past months as people start to appreciate his outsider mentality and understand his unique policies. Why am I just now having him jump two spots in the rankings? There were two polls this past week (one national and one in early primary state New Hampshire) that had Yang at 5%. That's equal to or better than Booker or O'Rourke have seen in months. Yang is on the upswing, while the other two are on the downswing.
7. Cory Booker
Previous Ranking: 6 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-Present); Mayor of Newark, NJ (2006-2013); Newark City Council (1998-2002)
8. Beto O'Rourke
Previous Ranking: 7 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Representative from Texas (2013–2019); El Paso City Council (2005-2011)
9. Julian Castro
Previous Ranking: 9 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014-2017); Mayor of San Antonio (2009-2014)
10. Amy Klobuchar
Previous Ranking: 10 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
Honorable Mentions, Tier 1
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
- Tom Steyer, Billionaire
- Marianne Williamson, Motivational Speaker & Self Help Author
Honorable Mentions, Tier 2
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana
- Bill De Blasio, Mayor of New York
- John Delaney, Former U.S. Representative from Maryland
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative from Ohio
- Joe Sestak, Former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
General Reference Links
- Primary Polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
- Party Endorsements - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/
- Candidate Media Coverage - https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/media/
Comments
Post a Comment