2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - February 26th, 2020
This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. The list only includes major candidates who are still in the race. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.
Notes for This Week:
- We've had two debates since our last update, last week in Nevada and last night in South Carolina. These were the first to include Michael Bloomberg, who was attacked early and often in the first debate. Front-runner Sanders took more of the attacks last night.
- This past Saturday, Nevada held its caucuses. Sanders got a pretty strong victory, but as you can see from our delegate count below, it's still anybody's game this early in the race.
- This coming Saturday, we have the South Carolina primary with 54 delegates up for grab. It looks to be a close race between Biden and Sanders, though Biden needs the win more.
- The real big event coming up is Super Tuesday on March 3rd. 14 states primaries and the American Samoa caucuses will take place, amounting to 1344 pledged delegates - about 1/3 of the nationwide total.
- Look out for several potential dropouts from candidates who don't gain any traction on Tuesday. Odds are good that Gabbard and Steyer will drop, but Bloomberg is a wildcard with his vast resources and equally vast ego.
Power Rankings
1. Bernie Sanders
Previous Ranking: 1 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders solidified himself as the frontrunner on Saturday, and the other candidates took note for recent campaigning and last night's debate. Some questioned his ability to bring the party together and actually get things done.
2. Pete Buttigieg
Previous Ranking: 2 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: Buttigieg has especially been trying to draw a sharp contrast with Sanders, suggesting that his policies go to far. Mayor Pete is painting a picture of his candidacy as being the being the more responsible alternative to Bernie.
3. Joe Biden
Previous Ranking: 3 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: Biden surprisingly did well last night, and he's going to need it. Once a lock to win South Carolina, he now holds a tight lead over Sanders. With his underwhelming performances in the primaries so far, Biden needs to win the state to gain some momentum going into Super Tuesday.
4. Michael Bloomberg
Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of New York City (2002-2013)
Notes: Bloomberg did not get a warm reception at his first debate. Warren came out hard against him, and he never recovered. He hasn't had to go through the rigorous campaign season like everyone else, so now his checkered past is starting to bite him in the rear.
5. Elizabeth Warren
Previous Ranking: 5 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Warren knows she has to fight to get back in the race, and she did just that in the past two debates. She successfully took on Bloomberg last week, and last night she turned to Sanders. We'll have to see if that strategy proves to be as successful.
6. Amy Klobuchar
Previous Ranking: 6 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
7. Tom Steyer
Previous Ranking: 7 (-)
Credentials: Billionaire
8. Tulsi Gabbard
Previous Ranking: 8 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Representative from Hawaii (2013–Current); Honolulu City Council Member (2011–2012); Hawaii State Representative (2002–2004); Major in Hawaii Army National Guard (2003-Current)
General Reference Links
- Primary Polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
- Party Endorsements - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/
- Candidate Media Coverage - https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/media/
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