2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings  - February 12th, 2020

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This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.


Notes for This Week:
  • Last night was the first straight primary of the election season. The voters of New Hampshire have spoken, and they are divided. In fact, 61% of voters made up their mind on who to vote for in just the last month. While Bernie Sanders narrowly won the popular vote, he tied for delegates with Buttigieg thanks to a weighted distribution. With 98% of precincts reported in, here's the breakdown:
      • Sanders - 25.8% - 9 Delegates
      • Buttigieg - 24.5% - 9 Delegates
      • Klobuchar - 19.8% - 6 Delegates
      • Warren - 9.3%
      • Biden - 8.4%
      • Steyer - 3.6%
      • Gabbard - 3.3%
      • Yang - 2.8%
      • Write-ins (inc. Bloomberg) - 1.4%
      • Patrick - 0.4%
      • Bennet - 0.3%
  • As you might have predicted from the numbers last night, Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick have suspended their campaigns. Surprisingly, Andrew Yang also dropped out of the race. I figured he had enough money and support to get to Super Tuesday (March 3rd). 
  • We only have eight candidates left, so no more Honorable Mentions in our rankings!
  • Now that we have two states down, I have started to add total delegate counts for the candidates. 

1. Bernie Sanders

Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Delegates: 21
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders is now the clear frontrunner in the race, even if he didn't get as much support in New Hampshire as he'd like. Sanders has cleared the progressive lane, including the struggling Warren, and the moderate lane is getting congested with Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar.


2. Joe Biden

Previous Ranking: 2 (-)
Delegates: 6
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: Things aren't looking great for Biden, who took 4th place in Iowa and 5th place in New Hampshire. However, don't count him out yet. The Nevada Caucuses next week will be a good indicator of his non-white support, but South Carolina is his "firewall". He's been polling in the clear lead there, so a win could give him momentum going into Super Tuesday.

3. Pete Buttigieg

Previous Ranking: 4 (+1)
Delegates: 22
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current) 
Notes: If you take Buttigieg's wins in the first two states at face value, you would assume he's the frontrunner. However, these are small states with predominately white voters. As we get to larger and more diverse states, Buttigieg's lack of minority support is going to hurt him.

4. Elizabeth Warren

Previous Ranking: 3 (-1)
Delegates: 8
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Warren's fourth place finish in New Hampshire is a major blow to her campaign. She's still polling ahead of Klobuchar nationally and in most states, but she's not safe.

5. Amy Klobuchar

Previous Ranking: 5 (-)
Delegates: 7
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
Notes: The biggest surprise last night was Klobuchar's strong 3rd place showing. She was polling closer to 10% heading into the primary, and it looks like her recent debate performance may have swayed undecided voters. She has a similar minority support issue as Buttigieg, so it may come down to which of the two can take advantage of their respective momentums.


6. Michael Bloomberg

Previous Ranking: 7 (+1)
Delegates: 0
Credentials: Mayor of New York City (2002-2013)
Notes: Bloomberg has been surging in the polls. Under normal circumstances, I would have moved him up another spot in my rankings, but Klobuchar is surging as well.

7. Tom Steyer

Previous Ranking: 8 (+1)
Delegates: 0
Credentials: Billionaire
Notes: There's really no path forward for Steyer. His best polling is in South Carolina, where he's averaging 10%, but that's not enough to build on. Steyer is self-funding his campaign, so I think he'll stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday.

8. Tulsi Gabbard

Previous Ranking: Honorable Mentions
Delegates: 0
Credentials: U.S. Representative from Hawaii (2013–Current); Honolulu City Council Member (2011–2012); Hawaii State Representative (2002–2004); Major in Hawaii Army National Guard (2003-Current)
Notes: Gabbard stumbles onto the list since there are only eight candidates left. She is probably the only candidate left that might drop out before Super Tuesday.


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