2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - February 6th, 2020
This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.
Notes for This Week:
- The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night were a complete mess, which is why this post is delayed. The mobile app used to tally votes had all kinds of problems. There were no official results until the next evening. As of this morning, 97% of precincts have reported error-filled results.
- Before Iowa, John Delaney finally dropped out of the race after almost years of unsuccessful campaigning.
- The next primary vote is in New Hampshire on Tuesday, February 11th. This one should (fingers-crossed) go more smoothly than Iowa, since it's a straight vote and doesn't use the now infamous app.
1. Bernie Sanders
Previous Ranking: 2 (+1)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Buttigieg and Sanders are the winners in Iowa (it's looking like Sanders got more votes, but Buttigieg won more delegates). We have to be careful not to overcompensate for the results in Iowa, but it's clear that Sanders is on the upswing. He's leading in polls for New Hampshire, and he's looking good for Super Tuesday.
2. Joe Biden
Previous Ranking: 1 (-1)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: Biden's biggest draw is his electability, so his campaign is in crisis mode after he finished 4th in Iowa. He needs a solid finish in New Hampshire, but he more importantly needs to win in South Carolina. He's been polling way ahead of the pack there since the beginning of the race, but if he losses that, then that shows his support in the South has diminished. That has been his ace in the hole, and a loss could mean he's done by Super Tuesday.
3. Elizabeth Warren
Previous Ranking: 3 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Warren had a solid third place finish in Iowa. She needs to find some momentum to break above the pack, but finishing above Biden is a good start.
4. Pete Buttigieg
Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: No matter what the exact totals are from Iowa, Buttigieg was a clear winner. Sanders and him basically tied for clear win over the competition, and Buttigieg gained a lot of support in the Final Round. The real question is whether he can take that momentum to improve his polling going forward. He's still coming in fourth in most national and early state polls.
5. Amy Klobuchar
Previous Ranking: 5 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
Notes: Klobuchar finished 5th in Iowa with 12% of delegates, which is solid. Unfortunately, she may have already peaked based on national and upcoming early state polls.
6. Andrew Yang
Previous Ranking: 6 (-)
Credentials: Entrepreneur
Notes: Yang earned 6th place in Iowa, but with only 1%. A regular candidate might drop out, but Yang is a different breed. He still has strong support among his followers and celebrity endorsements.
7. Michael Bloomberg
Previous Ranking: 7 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of New York City (2002-2013)
Notes: Bloomberg barely got any support in Iowa, which isn't unexpected. He's placing his chips on Super Tuesday, but there's nothing to really show that will work.
8. Tom Steyer
Previous Ranking: 8 (-)
Credentials: Billionaire
Notes: Steyer did marginally better than Bloomberg, but he had to work a lot harder to get there.
Honorable Mentions
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
- Deval Patrick, Former Governor of Massachusetts
General Reference Links
- Primary Polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
- Party Endorsements - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/
- Candidate Media Coverage - https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/media/
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