2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings  - December 4, 2019

-

This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.


Notes for This Week:
  • It's hard to believe that we are less than two months away from the first primary election. The polls should tighten up as the field thins (see next points) and voters start paying more attention to the race.
  • Kamala Harris surprisingly ended her bid for the nomination yesterday, despite already qualifying for the December debate. After a strong start, including a bump from her performance in the first debate, Harris has been steadily sliding in the polls and fundraising numbers. Still, this is easily the biggest dropout of the primary season. Even in recent weeks, she's been getting up to 6% in national polls.
  • Joe Sestak and Steve Bullock (both in the "Honorable Mention, Tier 2" category on our list) have also dropped out.

1. Joe Biden

Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: While Harris and Biden have had their clashes, don't be too surprised some of her followers flock to the former VP. In fact, Biden may end up gaining supporters from all the remaining dropouts as voters look to coalesce behind a front runner.

2. Elizabeth Warren

Previous Ranking: 2 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: With Warren slipping in recent polling, the news of Harris's exit from the race should be welcome. There is no obvious candidate for Harris supporters to flock to, but I think Warren will get a large percentage.

3. Bernie Sanders

Previous Ranking: 3 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders has pulled ahead of Warren in some recent national and state polls, but the data is still muddy. If Warren doesn't get a bump from Harris supporters, look for these two candidates to swap positions.

4. Pete Buttigieg

Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)  
Notes: The Buttigieg Bump 2.0 is holding strong, and it might get stronger now with Harris out.

5. Andrew Yang

Previous Ranking: 6 (+1)
Credentials: Entrepreneur

6. Amy Klobuchar

Previous Ranking: 7 (+1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)

7. Cory Booker

Previous Ranking: 8 (+1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-Present); Mayor of Newark, NJ (2006-2013); Newark City Council (1998-2002)
Notes: Booker is another candidate who has a good shot of gaining supporters now that Harris is out. Bloomberg is polling better at the moment, so if Booker doesn't see a post-Harris bump, he'll probably drop in the rankings.

8. Michael Bloomberg

Previous Ranking: Honorable Mention
Credentials: Mayor of New York City (2002-2013)
Notes: Bloomberg barely gets edge over Gabbard for the newly opened eighth spot on the list. While Gabbard is doing better in early state polls, Bloomberg is easily ahead nationally. He also has the money to make up for his late entry.


Honorable Mentions, Tier 1

  • Julian Castro, Former U.S. Secretary of HUD and Former Mayor of San Antonio
  • Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
  • Tom Steyer, Billionaire

Honorable Mentions, Tier 2

  • Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
  • John Delaney, Former U.S. Representative from Maryland
  • Deval Patrick, Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Marianne Williamson, Motivational Speaker & Self Help Author

General Reference Links


Let me know what you think about my rankings! Leave a comment below.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog