2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - August 22, 2019
This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running or have formed an exploratory committee are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.
Notes for This Week:
It's a good thing that this week's rankings are delayed by a day, since Jay Inslee ended his campaign last night. John Hickenlooper also ended his campaign last week and announced today that he is running for Senate. Next week is the cut off for the 3rd debate qualifications, and right now the Top 10 below are the only qualifiers. Gabbard and Steyer are close to qualifying, but only two others (Williamson and Gillibrand) have even an outside chance of making it. That means the next debate will likely have 12 candidates at most.
1. Joe Biden
Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: There seems to be a consensus, even with his own wife, that Biden isn't necessarily most people's first choice, but that he is the safest choice to beat Trump. This may explain why his polling has held steady despite debate performances and gaffes.
2. Elizabeth Warren
Previous Ranking: 2 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Warren got a nice influx of media attention last week.
3. Bernie Sanders
Previous Ranking: 3 (-)Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders released a $16.3 trillion climate plan today that builds on the controversial New Green Deal.
4. Kamala Harris
Previous Ranking: 4 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from California (2017–Current); Attorney General of California (2011–2017); District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011)
Notes: Harris has dropped in polling since her surge after the first debate, and media has taken notice. While she's holding on to fourth place in national polling, she's actually trailing Buttigieg in the most recent early state polls.
5. Pete Buttigieg
Previous Ranking: 5 (-)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: Buttigieg is following close behind Harris, but his struggles in the South (e.g. 5% in the latest South Carolina poll) could be his downfall.
6. Cory Booker
Previous Ranking: 6 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-Present); Mayor of Newark, NJ (2006-2013); Newark City Council (1998-2002)
7. Beto O'Rourke
Previous Ranking: 7 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Representative from Texas (2013–2019); El Paso City Council (2005-2011)
Notes: O'Rourke is actually doing the same or better than Booker in national polls, but early state polls are more mixed. If he can't move up the rankings after a fiery restart to his campaign, then O'Rourke is in serious trouble.
8. Andrew Yang
Previous Ranking: 10 (+2)
Credentials: Entrepreneur
Notes: Yang has had a polling average around 2% over the past few weeks, and even garnered 4% in the most recent New Hampshire state poll.
9. Julian Castro
Previous Ranking: 8 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014-2017); Mayor of San Antonio (2009-2014)
Notes: This week, Castro became the 10th qualifier for the 3rd and 4th debates. He just edges Klobuchar out due to being called out by Trump and getting more media coverage.
10. Amy Klobuchar
Previous Ranking: 9 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
Notes: Klobuchar also got 4% in the NH poll, but nationally she's stuck at 1%. While Klobuchar does have some solid party support (especially amongst moderates), she is not generating the kind of excitement that outsider Yang is.
Honorable Mentions
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana
- Bill De Blasio, Mayor of New York
- John Delaney, Former U.S. Representative from Maryland
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York
- Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative from Ohio
- Joe Sestak, Former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
- Tom Steyer, Billionaire
- Marianne Williamson, Motivational Speaker & Self Help Author
General Reference Links
- Primary Polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
- Party Endorsements - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/
- Candidate Media Coverage - https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/media/
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