2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Weekly Power Rankings - July 3, 2019

This list looks at who I believe currently has the best chance of winning the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for President. Only notable individuals who have announced they are running or have formed an exploratory committee are included. I am not a political expert, so don’t take this too seriously. Feel free to provide feedback.


Notes for This Week:

The first debates last week seemed to have shaken things up a bit. There is a lot of data that came out of debates, including several post-debate polls that confirms some of the reactions people had.

Here is my quick opinion on the debates. I think the top performers overall were Harris, Castro, Warren, Buttigieg, and Booker. The worst performances were by Biden, O'Rourke, Swalwell, and Williamson. Harris and Castro got more coverage because they attacked an opponent (Biden and O'Rourke, respectively). This tactic seemed to work, as their numbers (i.e. polling, favorability, news coverage) jumped and the recipients of the attacks dropped.

1. Joe Biden

Previous Ranking: 1 (-)
Credentials: Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
Notes: Harris took Biden to task over his old views on bussing, and it seems to have worked. Polling right after the debate showed that a significant amount of people moved their support from Biden to Harris.

2. Elizabeth Warren

Previous Ranking: 2 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–Current); Assistant to the President for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011); Congressional Oversight Panel Chair for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (2008–2010)
Notes: Warren didn't get into any squabbles during the debate, which worked in her favor. She looked Presidential as she stayed above the fray while still being passionate about her vision. The latest polling continues to show her upward climb, even leading the pack in one Iowa poll.

3. Kamala Harris

Previous Ranking: 5 (+2)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from California (2017–Current); Attorney General of California (2011–2017); District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011)
Notes: Harris leaned into her prosecutor past by grilling Biden. The upward trend in her favorability and polling puts her in a prime spot.

4. Bernie Sanders

Previous Ranking: 3 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–Current); U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991–2007); Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989)
Notes: Sanders stuck to his points during the debate, but he didn't exactly shine. He is still leaking support, and it's hard to enivision his path to gaining voters.

5. Pete Buttigieg

Previous Ranking: 4 (-1)
Credentials: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 — Current)
Notes: Buttigieg actually did well in the debate, looking calm and composed. Unfortunately, that doesn't excite people, so he's already seeing a dip in the polls.

6. Beto O'Rourke

Previous Ranking: 6 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Representative from Texas (2013–2019); El Paso City Council (2005-2011)
Notes: Things are looking rough for O'Rourke. In the battle of Texans, Castro came after O'Rourke during the debate in regards to immigration. O'Rourke didn't the help to look weak on the debate stage. He looked uncomfortable and didn't answer the questions very well, not to mention him dusting off his Spanish in an obvious pander.

7. Cory Booker

Previous Ranking: 7 (-)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-Present); Mayor of Newark, NJ (2006-2013); Newark City Council (1998-2002)
Notes: Booker has a similar issue to Buttigieg. He performed well in the debates, but without the positive media push, he hasn't seen any growth in polling.

8. Julian Castro

Previous Ranking: Honorable Mention
Credentials: U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014-2017); Mayor of San Antonio (2009-2014)
Notes: Castro is back in the game after a great debate performance where he showed his passion and understanding of the issues. His polling is only slightly up, but his favorability ratings increased more than anyone on the stage.

9. Amy Klobuchar

Previous Ranking: 8 (-1)
Credentials: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007-Present)
Notes: I'm not kicking Klobuchar off the list yet, even though she performed lukewarm at best at the debates. She still has a lot of party support and is the most conservative viable candidate. 

Honorable Mentions, Tier 1

Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii
Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York
John Hickenlooper, Former Governor of Colorado
Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington
Andrew Yang, Entrepreneur

Honorable Mentions, Tier 2

Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana
Bill De Blasio, Mayor of New York
John Delaney, Former U.S. Representative from Maryland
Mike Gravel, Former U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative from Alaska
Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts
Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative from Ohio
Eric Swalwell, U.S. Representative from California
Marianne Williamson, Motivational Speaker & Self Help Author

Let me know what you think about my rankings! Leave a comment below.